Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Perceptual Model of Change Paper
Anthony Oatley
10/15/19

          In Steven Sheppard’s book, Visualizing Climate Change, he offers a model that describes the stages of perception that individuals go through related to acting on anthropogenic climate change. He examines how the concepts of seeing, hearing, knowing, recognizing, and caring, cause an individual to act or not act on their own personal values. This model also examines the potential barriers to successfully incorporating all of these elements together which can lead not only individuals acting, but entire communities. Sheppard admits his model is a simplification of reality in the sense that it can’t possibly predict every barrier or path to action, but it is intended to be used as a helpful tool in looking at the way individuals can help alleviate the problems caused by the climate crisis. The figure below incorporates most aspects of his perceptual model of change. 

          Sheppard’s model of perceptual change begins with the hearing, knowing, and seeing stages. Hearing pertains to information that is acquired through the medium of words. Hearing about information regarding climate change can come through reading and engaging in related dialogue with other individuals. Seeing is simply the first hand experience of visual evidence of climate change through observing the local landscape, watching local visual media (TV), or social actions. Social actions can be observed locally but can also be seen in other communities when a given individual visits another location other than their local community. Hearing information and seeing the landscape are two of the fundamental stages that impact the concept of knowing for an individual. These two stages have barriers that can be overcome by diversifying sources of information and improving observation of landscapes.
          Knowing refers to successfully receiving and processing information we get from hearing information and seeing the landscape. This stage is an especially important point in the path to action where an individual may receive incorrect or biased information that may lead to inaction or just, in general, a misinformed public. Besides the potential for misinformation or bias, clarity and accuracy can also act as barriers to knowing. The concept of knowing is key in the stage of recognizing. Recognizing refers to consciously noticing signs of climate change and understanding their significance. The ability to properly recognize signs of climate change throughout a landscape is called visual literacy. As an individual improves their visual literacy, they can overcome the barriers to hearing, seeing, and knowing as well. Personal values can also alter an individual’s ability to recognize, however depending on the seriousness of certain information or experiences, values can be adjusted to become consistent with knowledge. 
          The last main stage on the path to action is caring. Like all other stages caring can be impacted by certain ways of hearing, seeing, knowing, recognizing, and personal values. Caring means simply that individuals are concerned about the potential implications of climate change and they wish to make things better. A main barrier in this stage is caring about other issues more than climate change, such as vanity through personal possessions like houses, cars, etc. Each of these stages/ elements contribute to the ultimate purpose of creating actions that contribute less to anthropogenic climate change. Hearing information and seeing landscapes lead to knowing. Knowing is key in the concept of visual literacy in the recognizing stage. Recognition is a result of known information and experiences that can be determined by our personal values, which leads to caring or not caring about climate change. 
          Sheppard acknowledges that these stages do not necessarily have to occur in a fixed order. An individual may experience something intense related to climate change such as abnormally impactful storm and step straight to caring and then to action. Some weaknesses of this model are the fixed pathways to other stages on the path to action. For example, it is unlikely that an individual will be able to recognize signs of climate change and then turn directly to action without the caring stage. In order to act, one must care even if it is through the lens of logic or self preservation. Another potential weakness is the lack of mention of external barriers not included in this model such as financial inequality and weak local and federal government climate regulations. The strengths of this model are that it gives a deeper understanding of the potential barriers that individuals can come upon on their path to action. In order to successfully avoid the worst of the consequences of the climate crisis human communities must overcome these barriers to action and perceptual change.


Monday, September 16, 2019

Climate Indicator - Arctic Sea Ice


Sea ice is a fundamental part of the Arctic Ocean. During winter months, sea ice covers the Arctic Ocean almost entirely. During summer months, some ice melts because of warmer air temperatures and longer days of sunlight. Sea ice is usually at its minimum thickness and extent during mid-September, and at its maximum in during winter with about twice the thickness and extent.

The presence of Arctic sea ice is a significant indicator of changes in global climate because warmer air and water temperatures are reducing the amount of sea ice covering large areas of water. Because sea ice has a higher albedo, it reflects more sunlight back to space than seawater. By doing this, sea ice plays an important role in regulating arctic temperatures and the planet’s overall energy balance. With decreasing amounts of sea ice and more open water throughout the year, a positive feedback loop is occurring. When more low-albedo open water is present more heating of water occurring and in turn, more melting of sea ice.
While sea ice being depleted does indeed have negative ecological impacts, however some commercial opportunities arise. Shipping lanes through the Arctic open up and for better or worse natural resource opportunities arise as well.

Data began to be collected through routine monitoring by satellites from 1979 to 2016. By definition, sea ice extent is “the area of ocean where at least 15 percent of the surface is frozen”. Data is collected year round, however the graph below highlights the months
of September and March, the months of minimum and maximum sea ice extent. Data was gathered by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using satellite imaging technology and data processing methods developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration.


The graph below shows a close up on May through September NSIDC data. It also highlights outliers, recent years, and the current 2019 data.